RFP: time to issue requests for research proposals?

Research and experimentation on the sword fern die-off has, over the last four years, been  rather unsystematic.  It has taken us a while to realize the nature and extent of the problem.  Seattle Parks, WSU, UW and citizen scientists have cobbled together some low levels of funding and lots of volunteer effort to run studies as they occur to us.  Seattle Parks ecologist Lisa Cieko has consistently supported the work, finding some funding for consultants and experimental restoration.  

A more systematic approach to research and remediation may now be worth a try.  
In the research circles in which I work - my day job is in computational biology at the Institute for Systems Biology - research strategies and priorities are typically set by a central funding agency.  For us, this is usually the NIH, which identifies topics of interest, circulates requests for proposals, then convenes study sections to review, critique and prioritize the submissions.

The central agency’s budget is usually not known in advance. Once the the annual budget is decided, the top-ranked proposals are funded, and the research begins.  In addition, if especially compelling proposals are received, addressing urgent problems,  these can motivate the search for increased funding.

For the sword fern decline, I propose a similar approach:

• The sword fern working group (or a subcommittee) identifies  broad research topics.
• RFPs are drafted and circulated, with full candor about the uncertainty of funding.  
• Research proposals (with budget options) are submitted by prospective researchers.
• The working group then sketches out various budget scenarios, on the assumption of finding zero, moderate or generous funding.  Funding sources are identified and approached.  
• Proposals are scored and ranked and then awarded funding depending on merit and the actual funding available.

Here are some research topics and projects for which RFPs could be issued:

1. What are the causes of the die-off?
2. How best to monitor die-off, at regional scale, and at the scale of selected small sites?
3. Ongoing actual monitoring projects (based on 2)
4. Determine the population structure (age distribution, mortality, natural replacement)  of healthy fern communities in order to establish a baseline against which to assess and understand the die-off.
5. What happens after die-off?  In what circumstances does unassisted regeneration occur?  In what circumstances does it not?   This topic could include strictly observational studies and/or restoration experiments.

Site Visit from Rodrigo Valverde

In early December,  plant pathologist Dr. Rodrigo Valverde visited the sword fern die-off regions at Seward Park.   I first discovered Rodrigo through his 2009 study of viral infection of the Japanese Holly Fern.  He also participates in Lousiana's Roseau Cane Die-Off project.

Rodrigo was startled by the sword fern die-off - echoing Dr. David Barrington's observation that it is novel and deeply worrisome.  Based upon his visit and the tentative results of my bottle experiment, he suggests: 

Water-borne [spread] and the symptoms starting at tips is very typical of a bacterial pathogen. This is because unlike other plant pathogens, bacteria needs an opening/point of entry.  It is possible that water accumulating at tips where “openings” may be present provides a perfect environment for infection.